Unprecedented?
Probably not, but the 2004 presidential elections continues to surprise with it twists and turns. The race now appears to be......well, all over the place. National polls are coming out daily that flatly contradict each other. Today Gallop has Kerry up by 1 while WaPo/ABC has Bush up 6. Yesterday Rasmussen had Bush up 4 and Zogby had Kerry up 3.
These all (except WaPo/ABC) fall within the MOE and the "internals" become all the more vital. There are all kinds of yak-yak going on about which polls are "fair" and the methodology of each poll.
My sense is that Bush is still ahead but that we are at a tilting point. Think of the election as being balanced on a pivot. Currently Bush controls the action, but any miscalculation could see Kerry move out in front, and not just by a little. If Kerry ever starts to actually surge, look out. Thus far Kerry has not polled above 50%.
I still believe that Karl Rove knows what he is doing. The only elected incumbent Republican to lose a re-election effort since 1932 was GHWB, and he lost because he had no Karl Rove. Lee Atwater died between the '88 and '92 campaigns and the contrasting results showed how valuable Atwater was.
In the final "debate" Bush needs to continue the progress he made in second one, and if he does so, he will be well positioned to win on Election Day.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
The race tightens
Recent polls continue to show the margin narrowing between President Bush and John Kerry. This was expected and predicted by most pundits and experts and thus is slight cause for gnashing of teeth by Republicans.
When the polls are disected and their internals sifted, and then applied to the reality of the individual state polls, it becomes ever more apparent that GWB is headed for a narrow but decisive victory.
Tomorrow night's debate is important. It gives Mr. Bush a chance to beat back the impression that Kerry clobbered him in their first encounter. While I don't believe that the debates will determine who wins or loses, they may well have a considerable impact on the final margin. For instance, I would now say that my prediction of a couple weeks ago of perhaps a 55-45 landslide seems out of reach. 52-48 seems more likely from this post-debate vantage point.
The time grows short, with less than four weeks till Election Day.
Recent polls continue to show the margin narrowing between President Bush and John Kerry. This was expected and predicted by most pundits and experts and thus is slight cause for gnashing of teeth by Republicans.
When the polls are disected and their internals sifted, and then applied to the reality of the individual state polls, it becomes ever more apparent that GWB is headed for a narrow but decisive victory.
Tomorrow night's debate is important. It gives Mr. Bush a chance to beat back the impression that Kerry clobbered him in their first encounter. While I don't believe that the debates will determine who wins or loses, they may well have a considerable impact on the final margin. For instance, I would now say that my prediction of a couple weeks ago of perhaps a 55-45 landslide seems out of reach. 52-48 seems more likely from this post-debate vantage point.
The time grows short, with less than four weeks till Election Day.
Monday, October 04, 2004
Post Debate thoughts
I did not watch the debate. I have read, extensively, the opinions of those who did see it. Putting those comments together with the early post-debate polling data, I've reach a few conclusions.
Kerry stanched the bleeding and probably saved himself from complete embarrassment on Election Day. Bush appears to have been poorly prepared which just flat out amazes and angers me. No excuse for it.
Karl Rove should have grabbed W by the ears and shouted in his face after that performance. Showing "annoyance" by making faces and behaving like a high school freshman is incredibly immature and stupid.
Come on Mr. President, be the man you have been since 9-11, not the irresponsible party boy you were 40 years ago.
I like George W. Bush, but he needs to rise above the limits of his father and become a true man of the people. A man who can take a poke in the rhetorical nose, maintain his calm and use his sense of humor to diffuse the moment.
This is still W's race to lose. I think the polls will loosen back up over the next few days, but the President needs a solid performance in the next debate to regain lost momentum.
I did not watch the debate. I have read, extensively, the opinions of those who did see it. Putting those comments together with the early post-debate polling data, I've reach a few conclusions.
Kerry stanched the bleeding and probably saved himself from complete embarrassment on Election Day. Bush appears to have been poorly prepared which just flat out amazes and angers me. No excuse for it.
Karl Rove should have grabbed W by the ears and shouted in his face after that performance. Showing "annoyance" by making faces and behaving like a high school freshman is incredibly immature and stupid.
Come on Mr. President, be the man you have been since 9-11, not the irresponsible party boy you were 40 years ago.
I like George W. Bush, but he needs to rise above the limits of his father and become a true man of the people. A man who can take a poke in the rhetorical nose, maintain his calm and use his sense of humor to diffuse the moment.
This is still W's race to lose. I think the polls will loosen back up over the next few days, but the President needs a solid performance in the next debate to regain lost momentum.
Thursday, September 30, 2004
Is a Landslide possible?
I think the answer is emphatically YES!
Political campaigns are deeply bound by tradition and generally follow along well worn paths. Many folks are reluctant to break out of habits well learned until they actually step into the voting booth. An election that illustrates this very well is 1980.
All through that campaign, the polls showed a relatively tight race. Reagan was considered by the chattering class as too much of a cowboy, dangerous, reckless etc. Many Americans thus kept their intention to vote for him to themselves. I have long felt that this explains why polls generally under count the GOP's support.
On election day Reagan destroyed Jimmy Carter. Reagan got 51% of the vote in a three way race and lead Carter by 10 percentage points. With the exception of Reagan's dismantling of the hapless Walter Mondale four years later, no presidential election since then has seen a margin anywhere near that large.
George W. Bush came into office under less than ideal conditions. He lost the popular vote (for what that is worth, more on that in a future post), and he won the electoral vote by the barest of margins and only after a several weeks long Gortantrum. Many pundits along with the Democratic Party, assumed this would cloud Bush's chances for a second term.
Then September 11, 2001 happened. In a single morning of horror, the earth shifted and politics as we knew it ceased to exist. That single fact, barring a bizarre and unprecedented meltdown by George W. Bush in tonight's debate, will re-elect the President and by a margin outside that which is suggested by current polls.
When voters across the nation enter the voting booth and prepare to pull the lever (or punch the screen, or whatever) the last thought they will have, the last image they will contemplate will decide their vote.
It won't be Social Security, or unemployment, or gay marriage, or tax cuts, or Vietnam. Enron won't matter nor will Halliburton or Damn Rather. Milk price supports, wind surfing, idiots from Hollywood, and gas prices won't matter.
What will rise before the mind's eye and fill Americans with resolve, will be two towers burning and falling, a national symbol with a plane embedded in one of its five sides, an open field in Pennsylvania where good men confronted evil.
I believe that when Americans make this most important of choices, a surprisingly large number of them will vote for George W. Bush. In five weeks we will know for sure, but at this moment I suspect the president will gather something on the order of 55% of the popular vote, well over 300 electoral votes, and John Kerry will join George McGovern, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis as men who ran for the wrong job against the wrong man at the wrong time.
I think the answer is emphatically YES!
Political campaigns are deeply bound by tradition and generally follow along well worn paths. Many folks are reluctant to break out of habits well learned until they actually step into the voting booth. An election that illustrates this very well is 1980.
All through that campaign, the polls showed a relatively tight race. Reagan was considered by the chattering class as too much of a cowboy, dangerous, reckless etc. Many Americans thus kept their intention to vote for him to themselves. I have long felt that this explains why polls generally under count the GOP's support.
On election day Reagan destroyed Jimmy Carter. Reagan got 51% of the vote in a three way race and lead Carter by 10 percentage points. With the exception of Reagan's dismantling of the hapless Walter Mondale four years later, no presidential election since then has seen a margin anywhere near that large.
George W. Bush came into office under less than ideal conditions. He lost the popular vote (for what that is worth, more on that in a future post), and he won the electoral vote by the barest of margins and only after a several weeks long Gortantrum. Many pundits along with the Democratic Party, assumed this would cloud Bush's chances for a second term.
Then September 11, 2001 happened. In a single morning of horror, the earth shifted and politics as we knew it ceased to exist. That single fact, barring a bizarre and unprecedented meltdown by George W. Bush in tonight's debate, will re-elect the President and by a margin outside that which is suggested by current polls.
When voters across the nation enter the voting booth and prepare to pull the lever (or punch the screen, or whatever) the last thought they will have, the last image they will contemplate will decide their vote.
It won't be Social Security, or unemployment, or gay marriage, or tax cuts, or Vietnam. Enron won't matter nor will Halliburton or Damn Rather. Milk price supports, wind surfing, idiots from Hollywood, and gas prices won't matter.
What will rise before the mind's eye and fill Americans with resolve, will be two towers burning and falling, a national symbol with a plane embedded in one of its five sides, an open field in Pennsylvania where good men confronted evil.
I believe that when Americans make this most important of choices, a surprisingly large number of them will vote for George W. Bush. In five weeks we will know for sure, but at this moment I suspect the president will gather something on the order of 55% of the popular vote, well over 300 electoral votes, and John Kerry will join George McGovern, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis as men who ran for the wrong job against the wrong man at the wrong time.
Monday, September 27, 2004
The Road to 270
Alabama 9 Bush 9
Alaska 3 Bush 12
Arizona 10 Bush 22
Arkansas 6 Bush 28
California 55 Kerry 55
Colorado 9 Bush 37
Connecticut 7 Kerry 62
Delaware 3 Kerry 65
District of Columbia 3 Kerry 68
Florida 27 Bush 64
Georgia 15 Bush 79
Hawaii 4 Kerry 72
Idaho 4 Bush 83
Illinois 21 Kerry 93
Indiana 11 Bush 94
Iowa 7 Bush (a switch) 101
Kansas 6 Bush 107
Kentucky 8 Bush 115
Louisiana 9 Bush 124
Maine 4 Kerry 97
Maryland 10 Kerry 107
Massachusetts 12 Kerry 119
Michigan 17 Kerry 136
Minnesota 10 Kerry 146
Mississippi 6 Bush 130
Missouri 11 Bush 141
Montana 3 Bush 144
Nebraska 5 Bush 149
Nevada 5 Bush 154
New Hampshire 4 Bush 158
New Jersey 15 Kerry 161
New Mexico 5 Kerry 166
New York 31 Kerry 197
North Carolina 15 Bush 173
North Dakota 3 Bush 176
Ohio 20 Bush 196
Oklahoma 7 Bush 203
Oregon 7 Kerry 204
Pennsylvania 21 Kerry 225
Rhode Island 4 Kerry 229
South Carolina 8 Bush 211
South Dakota 3 Bush 214
Tennessee 11 Bush 225
Texas 34 Bush 259
Utah 5 Bush 264
Vermont 3 Kerry 232
Virginia 13 Bush 277*****
Washington 11 Kerry 243
West Virginia 5 Bush 282
Wisconsin 10 Bush 292
Wyoming 3 Bush 295
Bush 295
Kerry 243
These are very close to numbers I put out back in January. I have moved New Mexico back into Kerry's court, while switching Nevada back to Bush. Both states have five votes and thus offset each other.
The huge news, and the only changes I have made from the 2000 results, is Iowa and Wisconsin moving strongly into the Red State column.
Several states are really too close to call, including Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. I would not be shocked to see all four go to President Bush on election day.
In my next post I will explain why I believe the President will actually win by an even larger margin.
Alabama 9 Bush 9
Alaska 3 Bush 12
Arizona 10 Bush 22
Arkansas 6 Bush 28
California 55 Kerry 55
Colorado 9 Bush 37
Connecticut 7 Kerry 62
Delaware 3 Kerry 65
District of Columbia 3 Kerry 68
Florida 27 Bush 64
Georgia 15 Bush 79
Hawaii 4 Kerry 72
Idaho 4 Bush 83
Illinois 21 Kerry 93
Indiana 11 Bush 94
Iowa 7 Bush (a switch) 101
Kansas 6 Bush 107
Kentucky 8 Bush 115
Louisiana 9 Bush 124
Maine 4 Kerry 97
Maryland 10 Kerry 107
Massachusetts 12 Kerry 119
Michigan 17 Kerry 136
Minnesota 10 Kerry 146
Mississippi 6 Bush 130
Missouri 11 Bush 141
Montana 3 Bush 144
Nebraska 5 Bush 149
Nevada 5 Bush 154
New Hampshire 4 Bush 158
New Jersey 15 Kerry 161
New Mexico 5 Kerry 166
New York 31 Kerry 197
North Carolina 15 Bush 173
North Dakota 3 Bush 176
Ohio 20 Bush 196
Oklahoma 7 Bush 203
Oregon 7 Kerry 204
Pennsylvania 21 Kerry 225
Rhode Island 4 Kerry 229
South Carolina 8 Bush 211
South Dakota 3 Bush 214
Tennessee 11 Bush 225
Texas 34 Bush 259
Utah 5 Bush 264
Vermont 3 Kerry 232
Virginia 13 Bush 277*****
Washington 11 Kerry 243
West Virginia 5 Bush 282
Wisconsin 10 Bush 292
Wyoming 3 Bush 295
Bush 295
Kerry 243
These are very close to numbers I put out back in January. I have moved New Mexico back into Kerry's court, while switching Nevada back to Bush. Both states have five votes and thus offset each other.
The huge news, and the only changes I have made from the 2000 results, is Iowa and Wisconsin moving strongly into the Red State column.
Several states are really too close to call, including Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. I would not be shocked to see all four go to President Bush on election day.
In my next post I will explain why I believe the President will actually win by an even larger margin.
Friday, September 24, 2004
Monday, September 20, 2004
Misled?
CBS and Dan Rather have now brought themselves to allow as how maybe they were misled.
What poppycock. "Misled" of course gets them cleanly off the hook. After all, slick salesmen "mislead" people. When your Granny paid $2000 to that fellow to asphalt her driveway and then she never saw him again, she had been misled. Get it? It was NOT her fault!
By merely admitting to being "misled" and expressing "regret" CBS continues to try to ignore, sidestep, and spin this whole imbroglio.
CBS needs to admit they committed a major journalistic mistake and then compounded it by refusing to admit any wrongdoing until today.
Then, they need to open themselves up to an independent investigation to address the appearance of improper practices.
Don't hold your breath. With their behavior over the past two weeks, CBS has shown total disregard for truth, honesty, fairness, and accountability.
Only their name is to be trusted. When you watch Dan Rather and the CBS Evening News, you do indeed see BS.
CBS and Dan Rather have now brought themselves to allow as how maybe they were misled.
What poppycock. "Misled" of course gets them cleanly off the hook. After all, slick salesmen "mislead" people. When your Granny paid $2000 to that fellow to asphalt her driveway and then she never saw him again, she had been misled. Get it? It was NOT her fault!
By merely admitting to being "misled" and expressing "regret" CBS continues to try to ignore, sidestep, and spin this whole imbroglio.
CBS needs to admit they committed a major journalistic mistake and then compounded it by refusing to admit any wrongdoing until today.
Then, they need to open themselves up to an independent investigation to address the appearance of improper practices.
Don't hold your breath. With their behavior over the past two weeks, CBS has shown total disregard for truth, honesty, fairness, and accountability.
Only their name is to be trusted. When you watch Dan Rather and the CBS Evening News, you do indeed see BS.
Thursday, September 16, 2004
A dime's worth of difference.
Someone famously said that "there's not a dime's worth of difference" between America's two major parties.
While perhaps true at one time or another, today there are stark differences between the donkeys and the elephants.
After boiling all the yap-yap blather down to the bare bones, I find two extremely important differences.
The Democratic Party thinks most Americans are victims, of one kind or another, who must be "protected" from everyone (except maybe terrorists). Since the beginning of the Democratic Party in the 1820's, one of the overarching prime principles they have argued for is that "the people" are a weak lot, helpless, hapless, taken advantage of and powerless to fight back.
In contrast, the Republican Party has maintained from its genesis, that America is made up of individuals, and thus INDIVIDUAL liberty and responsibility is the only true hope of this nation.
Democrats used this difference to their advantage for most of the 20th Century. They convinced large segments of voters that THEY were for the little guy, while the GOP was for the rich. The facts are somewhat different.
Both parties actually favor "the rich". Life on this earth itself is geared toward the powerful. Money and power have many more options than poverty and weakness. This outstanding essay from William F. Buckley illustrates this beautifully.
Where the difference resides is in that while the Democrats would eternally enslave poor people and ensnare them in a net of never ending dependence, the GOP insists that EVERYONE be given a chance to stand or fall on their own.
As a core principle, Republicans believe that only through rigor can there be vigor. Patting folks on the head and giving them something today, does not prepare them for tomorrow, and more importantly does not allow them to become valuable and contributing members of society and co-owners of America's wealth and power.
The Democratic Party of 2004 finds itself firmly stuck in the ideas and problems of the 1930's. Because many Americans needed help during the Depression, the Democrats think they always will need that same level of "help". They have never caught on to the fact that the patient is much better and no longer needs the level of services that the New Deal provided.
To his ever lasting credit, Bill Clinton largely ended welfare (as we knew it for roughly 30 years) but his party can't seem to learn the lesson and move on to the new world.
The other clear and huge difference between the two parties is related to foreign policy and the use of America's power. Unlike the first difference, this one is of much more recent vintage.
Partisan squabbles are supposed to end at the water's edge, and generally speaking did for many decades. That is not to say that there weren't violent arguments about war and peace down through the ages, but through it all one principle was agreed to by America's leaders: American power should be used justly, wisely, sparingly, but at all times.....In America's Best Interests.
Today's Democratic Party is dominated by people who believe that American power is bad. Not just bad but evil. (What amazes me is how any GOP criticism of John Kerry's positions, immediately brings counter charges that the Republicans are "questioning my patriotism". Huh? No what Republicans and conservatives are "questioning" are your loony ideas. Ideas that if put in practice would endanger our nation and freedom around the world.)
Kerry Spot at NRO (scroll down to the 9/16 5:37PM entry) has referenced a Pew Research finding that suggests that 51% of Democrats blame the United States for 9-11.
That's what I'm talkin' about. Incredible.
The Democratic Party of FDR, Truman, Scoop Jackson and Joe Lieberman, no longer exists (Joe has not figured that out yet). In its place we have a pasty faced pack of fools who, riddled with guilt and cowardice, tries to appease murdering thugs by scorning the nation of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan, and you.
George W. Bush's Republican Party is too liberal and too wedded to big government, but on the two items discussed above, the GOP is still the only choice for conservatives.
Someone famously said that "there's not a dime's worth of difference" between America's two major parties.
While perhaps true at one time or another, today there are stark differences between the donkeys and the elephants.
After boiling all the yap-yap blather down to the bare bones, I find two extremely important differences.
The Democratic Party thinks most Americans are victims, of one kind or another, who must be "protected" from everyone (except maybe terrorists). Since the beginning of the Democratic Party in the 1820's, one of the overarching prime principles they have argued for is that "the people" are a weak lot, helpless, hapless, taken advantage of and powerless to fight back.
In contrast, the Republican Party has maintained from its genesis, that America is made up of individuals, and thus INDIVIDUAL liberty and responsibility is the only true hope of this nation.
Democrats used this difference to their advantage for most of the 20th Century. They convinced large segments of voters that THEY were for the little guy, while the GOP was for the rich. The facts are somewhat different.
Both parties actually favor "the rich". Life on this earth itself is geared toward the powerful. Money and power have many more options than poverty and weakness. This outstanding essay from William F. Buckley illustrates this beautifully.
Where the difference resides is in that while the Democrats would eternally enslave poor people and ensnare them in a net of never ending dependence, the GOP insists that EVERYONE be given a chance to stand or fall on their own.
As a core principle, Republicans believe that only through rigor can there be vigor. Patting folks on the head and giving them something today, does not prepare them for tomorrow, and more importantly does not allow them to become valuable and contributing members of society and co-owners of America's wealth and power.
The Democratic Party of 2004 finds itself firmly stuck in the ideas and problems of the 1930's. Because many Americans needed help during the Depression, the Democrats think they always will need that same level of "help". They have never caught on to the fact that the patient is much better and no longer needs the level of services that the New Deal provided.
To his ever lasting credit, Bill Clinton largely ended welfare (as we knew it for roughly 30 years) but his party can't seem to learn the lesson and move on to the new world.
The other clear and huge difference between the two parties is related to foreign policy and the use of America's power. Unlike the first difference, this one is of much more recent vintage.
Partisan squabbles are supposed to end at the water's edge, and generally speaking did for many decades. That is not to say that there weren't violent arguments about war and peace down through the ages, but through it all one principle was agreed to by America's leaders: American power should be used justly, wisely, sparingly, but at all times.....In America's Best Interests.
Today's Democratic Party is dominated by people who believe that American power is bad. Not just bad but evil. (What amazes me is how any GOP criticism of John Kerry's positions, immediately brings counter charges that the Republicans are "questioning my patriotism". Huh? No what Republicans and conservatives are "questioning" are your loony ideas. Ideas that if put in practice would endanger our nation and freedom around the world.)
Kerry Spot at NRO (scroll down to the 9/16 5:37PM entry) has referenced a Pew Research finding that suggests that 51% of Democrats blame the United States for 9-11.
That's what I'm talkin' about. Incredible.
The Democratic Party of FDR, Truman, Scoop Jackson and Joe Lieberman, no longer exists (Joe has not figured that out yet). In its place we have a pasty faced pack of fools who, riddled with guilt and cowardice, tries to appease murdering thugs by scorning the nation of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan, and you.
George W. Bush's Republican Party is too liberal and too wedded to big government, but on the two items discussed above, the GOP is still the only choice for conservatives.
Goodness!
It has been almost six months since my last post. I promise that won't happen again. I will be posting each Monday and Thursday and otherwise as the spirit moves me.
I have had a very hectic Spring and Summer but now I am ready to get down to it again.
The presidential race is shaping up much as I thought it would. The Kerry campaign however has been much more incompetent than I could have hoped.
I really am beginning to suspect that it is being systematically sabotaged from with-in.
My prediction from back in January still stands. Bush in a narrow but clear victory.
I will be reevaluating my state by state predictions before the end of the month.
It has been almost six months since my last post. I promise that won't happen again. I will be posting each Monday and Thursday and otherwise as the spirit moves me.
I have had a very hectic Spring and Summer but now I am ready to get down to it again.
The presidential race is shaping up much as I thought it would. The Kerry campaign however has been much more incompetent than I could have hoped.
I really am beginning to suspect that it is being systematically sabotaged from with-in.
My prediction from back in January still stands. Bush in a narrow but clear victory.
I will be reevaluating my state by state predictions before the end of the month.
Friday, March 19, 2004
Kerry begins his fall
As I have steadfastly maintained, John Kerry is looking less "presidential" every day.
The fact is that Bill Clinton has more class and grace than this product of Bahstan blue bloods.
John Kerry is a jerk. A self centered, ego maniacal, me first, jerk. Now he has added cussing a Secret Service agent for bumping His Highness, to his resume.
He brings NOTHING to the table beyond his desire to be important. A Kerry presidency would be a disaster that would make conservatives long for the Clinton Administration.
In fact I will go farther: President John Kerry would make Jimmy Carter look good.
Again, barring some horrific event, this election will be won by George W. Bush. What I have seen of the Bush campaign thus far, convinces me that Karl Rove is in full possession of his faculties, and will roast Mr. Kerry as he richly deserves.
As I have steadfastly maintained, John Kerry is looking less "presidential" every day.
The fact is that Bill Clinton has more class and grace than this product of Bahstan blue bloods.
John Kerry is a jerk. A self centered, ego maniacal, me first, jerk. Now he has added cussing a Secret Service agent for bumping His Highness, to his resume.
He brings NOTHING to the table beyond his desire to be important. A Kerry presidency would be a disaster that would make conservatives long for the Clinton Administration.
In fact I will go farther: President John Kerry would make Jimmy Carter look good.
Again, barring some horrific event, this election will be won by George W. Bush. What I have seen of the Bush campaign thus far, convinces me that Karl Rove is in full possession of his faculties, and will roast Mr. Kerry as he richly deserves.
Friday, February 27, 2004
A double dose of good news for the President.
The economy continues to roll as the fourth quarter numbers have been released and show a growth rate of 4.1%.
This paragraph buried deep inn the AP story is enlightening:
"The economy's performance in the second half of last year marked the best back-to-back quarterly performance since the first two quarters of 1984."
In other words, since Ronald Reagan was president. Or put another way, better than Slick Willie ever managed. Do you suppose Peter Jennings will point that out on the news this evening?
The second bit of happy news is that the National Journal has just released its rankings of the members of the U.S. Congress, and one John Kerry is the MOST LIBERAL Senator. Yep, more liberal than Teddy K and more liberal than Barby Boxer. This is stunning stuff and Karl Rove MUST be drooling with thoughts of the ads he can run this Fall.
I will say it again, Bush will win re-election, and he will do it fairly easily.
The economy continues to roll as the fourth quarter numbers have been released and show a growth rate of 4.1%.
This paragraph buried deep inn the AP story is enlightening:
"The economy's performance in the second half of last year marked the best back-to-back quarterly performance since the first two quarters of 1984."
In other words, since Ronald Reagan was president. Or put another way, better than Slick Willie ever managed. Do you suppose Peter Jennings will point that out on the news this evening?
The second bit of happy news is that the National Journal has just released its rankings of the members of the U.S. Congress, and one John Kerry is the MOST LIBERAL Senator. Yep, more liberal than Teddy K and more liberal than Barby Boxer. This is stunning stuff and Karl Rove MUST be drooling with thoughts of the ads he can run this Fall.
I will say it again, Bush will win re-election, and he will do it fairly easily.
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
Four More Years.
I am increasingly of a mind that George W. Bush will sweep back to power with a much larger win than 2000.
A race between two non-incumbents is much more unpredictable than when an incumbent is present.
Public opinion polls that purport to measure approval and disapproval can be tweaked in any way the poll taker wants the results to go. However the more questions that are asked, the harder it is for a dishonest polling effort to cover its tracks.
For instance, a poll that shows President Bush has only a 48% approval rating on foreign policy, yet also shows 65% support the Iraq War, almost by definition is unreliable.
When reading poll results, always read the full list of questions, find out what the sample number were (how many Dems, how many GOP etc), and when the poll was taken.
George W. Bush will win in November barring some huge disaster. My earlier prediction of a very narrow victory for Bush is still operative, but I now think Bush will collect closer to 350 electoral votes than the minimum of 270.
I am increasingly of a mind that George W. Bush will sweep back to power with a much larger win than 2000.
A race between two non-incumbents is much more unpredictable than when an incumbent is present.
Public opinion polls that purport to measure approval and disapproval can be tweaked in any way the poll taker wants the results to go. However the more questions that are asked, the harder it is for a dishonest polling effort to cover its tracks.
For instance, a poll that shows President Bush has only a 48% approval rating on foreign policy, yet also shows 65% support the Iraq War, almost by definition is unreliable.
When reading poll results, always read the full list of questions, find out what the sample number were (how many Dems, how many GOP etc), and when the poll was taken.
George W. Bush will win in November barring some huge disaster. My earlier prediction of a very narrow victory for Bush is still operative, but I now think Bush will collect closer to 350 electoral votes than the minimum of 270.
Friday, February 13, 2004
Drudge claims in question.
The news that Wesley Clark has now endorsed John Kerry calls in to strong doubt the Drudge Report story regarding possible Bimbo Eruptions in the ultra-liberal Senator's campaign.
Drudge had quoted Clark as predicting that "Kerry will implode over an intern issue." It seems very unlikely that even a quack like Clark would endorse Kerry if he thought he was going to "implode".
As I noted yesterday, Drudge and facts often go their separate ways and this may well be the latest spat between the two.
The news that Wesley Clark has now endorsed John Kerry calls in to strong doubt the Drudge Report story regarding possible Bimbo Eruptions in the ultra-liberal Senator's campaign.
Drudge had quoted Clark as predicting that "Kerry will implode over an intern issue." It seems very unlikely that even a quack like Clark would endorse Kerry if he thought he was going to "implode".
As I noted yesterday, Drudge and facts often go their separate ways and this may well be the latest spat between the two.
Thursday, February 12, 2004
Here we go again.
I thought it was odd that Howard Dean was attacking Kerry with such ferocity the past few days. Given that Dean racked up 8% or so of the votes in states like Virginia and Tennessee while Kerry was at or over 50%, I naturally expected the other candidates to start kissing up to the apparent nominee.
I chalked Dean's comments up to the fact that he is Dean. Now however, it looks like there may be more to it than that. The Drudge Report has a high wattage alert that suggests that John Kerry's campaign is about to blow up over charges of "recent alleged infidelity".
Drudge admittedly has an uneven track record. There have been numerous times when he has totally missed the fact train. However, this report has a whiff of believability to it. Among other things, it maintains that "A serious investigation of the woman and the nature of her relationship with Sen. John Kerry has been underway at TIME magazine, ABC NEWS, the WASHINGTON POST and the ASSOCIATED PRESS, where the woman in question once worked."
The next few days may well turn the Democratic race on it ear. Again.
I thought it was odd that Howard Dean was attacking Kerry with such ferocity the past few days. Given that Dean racked up 8% or so of the votes in states like Virginia and Tennessee while Kerry was at or over 50%, I naturally expected the other candidates to start kissing up to the apparent nominee.
I chalked Dean's comments up to the fact that he is Dean. Now however, it looks like there may be more to it than that. The Drudge Report has a high wattage alert that suggests that John Kerry's campaign is about to blow up over charges of "recent alleged infidelity".
Drudge admittedly has an uneven track record. There have been numerous times when he has totally missed the fact train. However, this report has a whiff of believability to it. Among other things, it maintains that "A serious investigation of the woman and the nature of her relationship with Sen. John Kerry has been underway at TIME magazine, ABC NEWS, the WASHINGTON POST and the ASSOCIATED PRESS, where the woman in question once worked."
The next few days may well turn the Democratic race on it ear. Again.
Friday, February 06, 2004
The love that won't shut up..
That is a hilarious line in a recent Powerline post from The Big Trunk.
Ever so often a short and simple phrase will sum up your feeling in way that 10,000 words could not.
That is a hilarious line in a recent Powerline post from The Big Trunk.
Ever so often a short and simple phrase will sum up your feeling in way that 10,000 words could not.
The Good News that is all bad.
We live in strange times. Take this report from the AP for instance.
Unemployments drops to 5.6%, 112,000 new jobs added last month as opposed to only 12,000 added in December, yet it is bad news.
Why?
Because economists were PREDICTING that even more jobs would be added, that's why.
So because some economists misread their crystal ball, we should all wring our hands in despair. Right? Well not really.
The economy continues to exhibit signs that it is in a moderate but steady march in the right direction. Brick by brick the recovery is being built. By Summer I believe John Kerry will be twisting and turning in the strong wind of a full blown expansion.
We live in strange times. Take this report from the AP for instance.
Unemployments drops to 5.6%, 112,000 new jobs added last month as opposed to only 12,000 added in December, yet it is bad news.
Why?
Because economists were PREDICTING that even more jobs would be added, that's why.
So because some economists misread their crystal ball, we should all wring our hands in despair. Right? Well not really.
The economy continues to exhibit signs that it is in a moderate but steady march in the right direction. Brick by brick the recovery is being built. By Summer I believe John Kerry will be twisting and turning in the strong wind of a full blown expansion.
Wednesday, February 04, 2004
The Fat Lady warms up.
Last night's win of five states by John Kerry pretty well finishes the race. John Edwards needed to win at least two states in order to maintain a strong position. He barely missed doing so in Oklahoma, losing by less than 1500 votes out of over 300,000 cast.
I still feel that Kerry is probably the weakest frontrunner that I have seen over the last 30 years. By this I mean that a TON of voters still chose someone else last night. Edwards and Clark drew respectable numbers and so did Dean and Lieberman considering they were the 4th and 5th place duo.
With only Lieberman dropping out, this race still has possible pitfalls for Kerry, but I suspect he will manage to avoid them. When preaching to the choir an experienced pol like Kerry will manage to hold the lead 99% of the time.
What was most impressive for Kerry was the fact that he carried states in all regions. Delaware, Missouri, Arizona/New Mexico and North Dakota.
Given the way this race has unfolded, I think a Kerry-Edwards ticket is very likely, with one caveat. IF the Democrats decide to "give up" on the South (except for Florida), then Edwards is far less attractive and Kerry may opt for a more experienced face from a swing state.
I still believe that Kerry has a record that the Bush Campaign will simply destroy, and I expect that 10 months from now the Democratic Party will once more be plunged into a round of intensive navel contemplation.
Last night's win of five states by John Kerry pretty well finishes the race. John Edwards needed to win at least two states in order to maintain a strong position. He barely missed doing so in Oklahoma, losing by less than 1500 votes out of over 300,000 cast.
I still feel that Kerry is probably the weakest frontrunner that I have seen over the last 30 years. By this I mean that a TON of voters still chose someone else last night. Edwards and Clark drew respectable numbers and so did Dean and Lieberman considering they were the 4th and 5th place duo.
With only Lieberman dropping out, this race still has possible pitfalls for Kerry, but I suspect he will manage to avoid them. When preaching to the choir an experienced pol like Kerry will manage to hold the lead 99% of the time.
What was most impressive for Kerry was the fact that he carried states in all regions. Delaware, Missouri, Arizona/New Mexico and North Dakota.
Given the way this race has unfolded, I think a Kerry-Edwards ticket is very likely, with one caveat. IF the Democrats decide to "give up" on the South (except for Florida), then Edwards is far less attractive and Kerry may opt for a more experienced face from a swing state.
I still believe that Kerry has a record that the Bush Campaign will simply destroy, and I expect that 10 months from now the Democratic Party will once more be plunged into a round of intensive navel contemplation.
Thursday, January 29, 2004
A pair of ninnies
Two very bad political decisions came to light today.
Two very bad political decisions came to light today.
First, Howard Dean has announced that he will run no TV ads in the seven states voting on February 3. Instead he will save his dwindling resources for Michigan, Washington, and Wisconsin. Bad idea.
Kerry has a huge head of steam built up. If Dean does not knock it down ASAP then it's Katie Bar The Door.
Dean's best (in fact only) chance to win in the latter three states, is to exceed expectations on Tuesday. No way will he do that if he does not run all out in the next round.
Second, President Bush's horrible decision to up the funding for the execrable National Endowment for the Arts. This may well be the straw that breaks the conservative camel's back (or rather its spirit). It is amazing beyond my ability to manipulate the English language, that W is repeating the same politically stupid arc that his father did.
Like the Adams, it appears the Bush family is intent on a double dose of single terms.
Incredible.
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
The Fat Lady Has Not Yet Sung
Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina. That is a daunting mixture of states if you are a liberal from Massachusetts who can easily be linked with the most famous liberal from Massachusetts.
Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina. That is a daunting mixture of states if you are a liberal from Massachusetts who can easily be linked with the most famous liberal from Massachusetts.
While John Kerry has clearly earned "frontrunner" status, I think maybe we should all step back and take a deep breath.
For starters, Kerry has yet to break the 40% barrier, and if you combine the vote of Dean, Edwards, and Clark, you reach exactly 50%. (In the FINAL count, Dean edged up to 26%, 12% behind Kerry.)Put another way, 62 percent of John Kerry's next door neighbors refused to vote for him.
John Kerry and his ultra-liberal track-record, will not play in those seven states I listed above, like he has in Iowa and New Hampshire. North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, are in the most conservative tier of states. Arizona and New Mexico have been trending more in the Democratic direction in recent years, but they are a completely different kettle of fish than either Iowa or New Hampshire. Delaware is solidly Democratic and the most likely one to be a pushover for Kerry. Missouri will be VERY interesting, especially if Richard Gephardt decides to make an endorsement.
The biggest point in Kerry's favor is the fact that his strongest opponent till now is also a liberal from New England. Howard Dean will also be on unfriendly terrain.
Clearly this coming Tuesday is THE big chance for Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman to make a strong showing. Lieberman is being written off by just about everyone, but he still has a chance to play the spoiler.
The expectation game is also a worry for Kerry. What if in a state like Oklahoma, Kerry comes in 4th? Or 5th? How will that play in the national media if results are mixed across the other states?
If I had to bet the ranch, I'd bet on Kerry, but given the choice I wouldn't wager on this race at all.
New Hampsire in their rear view....
With John Kerry's strong showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire, we now move into the meat of the primary season. The question on everyone's mind is: Can Kerry be stopped?
I suspect the answer is NO. While Dean has money, he has lost the traction he generated early on. Michael Barone made an interesting case on Fox last night, when he traced the beginning of Dean's collapse to the incident on January 11, when he had a run in with a questioner in Iowa.
The older gentleman, who was described as a Republican, requested that Dean treat "his neighbor" George Bush, with more kindness. Dean wound up telling the man to shut up. According to Barone, the tracking polls the very next day showed Dean losing support.
Edwards also has the money to go on, but I agree with many others who have pointed out that there is something about Edwards that seems less than ready for prime time.
Clark is hopeless. Arrogant and stupid is a bad combination.
Lieberman may actually begin to finish ahead of Clark when the action shifts to the more conservative South and Midwest.
At this point I think a Kerry-Edwards ticket seems a very likely outcome.
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