How Does Dean Aim To Win?

It is widely assumed that after Howard Dean wraps up the Democratic Nomination, he will veer sharply right for the General Election. But some folks maintain that Dean has become a "true believer" in the liberal causes he is now supporting, and will hew to that path all the way to November 2.

I believe Dean desperately wants to win and will tack in which ever direction he thinks he needs to, in order to succeed.

Presidential politics is a wondrous world where managing PERCEPTION is more important than anything else.

While the political game is multifaceted, the three most important PERCEPTIONS that a presidential candidate MUST score well in are A) Is the candidate QUALIFIED to be president? and B) Are the candidate's IDEAS in line with the majority of voters? and C) Is the candidate LIKEABLE? Remember that we are discussing PERCEPTION, not reality.

Let us begin with 1952. Ike vs Adlai . Dwight D. Eisenhower clearly passed on all counts. Adlai Stevenson passed on the first count, but failed badly on the second count. He also got less than high marks on the last count. While he was not a candidate that we think of as being disliked in particular, he WAS viewed as being rather much of an egghead, and against Eisenhower that was the kiss of death. 1956 was naturally the same PERCEPTION match-up except now Eisenhower had shown beyond doubt that he was QUALIFIED for the job.

In 1960 John F. Kennedy suffered from two things. First he was Catholic, and second he was thought to be inexperienced, a light weight. Nixon on the other hand was neither. But Nixon was hurt in the LIKEABLE category, an area where Kennedy scored high. The election was very close because of this mixed bag. What saved JFK (besides Mayor Daley and LBJ) was that by election day he had convinced enough people that he was at least marginally QUALIFIED to be president, his IDEAS were not greatly different than Nixon's and he scored well above Nixon in the LIKEABLE contest.

In 1964, Lyndon Johnson probably would have won against any Republican, but he lucked into Barry Goldwater. Goldwater managed to fail in all three categories. People questioned his stability, they were scared of his position on issues, and he came across as stern and forbidding. LBJ just smiled his way to an electoral and popular landslide.

1968 is a bit of an oddity. Nixon was back in a more mature and less threatening form. Hubert Humphrey was generally liked but viewed as very liberal, and George Wallace was the wild-card/spoiler. Superimposing my template on the race, I would conclude that Nixon slightly outscored Humphrey on QUALIFIED and IDEAS, while managing to appear acceptably LIKEABLE, especially with Wallace providing contrast.

In 1972 (and this is where I think we enter the truly MODERN age) McGovern ended up being looked at as a clown. He completely failed on the QUALIFIED and IDEAS requirements, and under those circumstances nobody cares if you are LIKEABLE or not.

Due to Watergate, 1976 was a year when any Democrat should have had a major advantage, but Jimmy Carter almost managed to blow it. I suspect the two candidates scored a near tie in all three areas, with perhaps a slight edge to Carter in IDEAS. Keep this race in mind when evaluating 2004.

1980 saw the fruition of a long slow drift toward the Republicans. Ronald Reagan was easily the most LIKEABLE and his IDEAS were more in tune with the country than Carter's. The area where he was weakest was QUALIFIED, but he had the great fortune to be running against Jimmy Carter who had spent four years proving beyond a doubt that he (Carter) was not QUALIFIED.

In 1984 Reagan was still LIKEABLE, his IDEAS were more popular than Walter Mondale's, and Reagan had shown that he was also QUALIFIED. Mondale's stupid insistence on staking out far-left positions, only solidified his inferior position in all three categories.

To be continued.....

A post this morning on one of my favorite blogs, Powerline, led me to this site .

I first took the 9 Question quickie and like Hindrocket I came up as a Saddam Hussien knock-off. Finding this less than acceptable, I went back and took the 18 Question version. This time I saw this:

What Famous Leader Are You?

I decided to quit while I was not a murderous has-been.