Victory is sweet.

This will be short. I will be posting my thoughts on this election over the next few days.

In particular I want to go into the media's incompetence.

I am reasonably pleased with my score on the electoral votes. I missed by 17 votes, and just four states.

One thing I want to note here and now, is how easy it was for me to conduct my own "exit polls".

Simply by firing up my 56K modem, I was able to access the election boards in all the key states and keep track of the actual vote tallies.

By comparing County X 2000 to County X 2004, I knew VERY early that Florida was going for Bush.

That's all for now but I shall return.

State-by-state predictions:

Alabama 9 Bush 9
Alaska 3 Bush 12
Arizona 10 Bush 22
Arkansas 6 Bush 28
California 55 Kerry 55
Colorado 9 Bush 37
Connecticut 7 Kerry 62
Delaware 3 Kerry 65
District of Columbia 3 Kerry 68
Florida 27 Bush 64
Georgia 15 Bush 79
Hawaii 4 Kerry 72
Idaho 4 Bush 83
Illinois 21 Kerry 93
Indiana 11 Bush 94
Iowa 7 Bush 101 SWITCH
Kansas 6 Bush 107
Kentucky 8 Bush 115
Louisiana 9 Bush 124
Maine 4 Kerry 97
Maryland 10 Kerry 107
Massachusetts 12 Kerry 119
Michigan 17 Bush 141 SWITCH
Minnesota 10 Bush 151 SWITCH
Mississippi 6 Bush 157
Missouri 11 Bush 168
Montana 3 Bush 171
Nebraska 5 Bush 176
Nevada 5 Bush 181
New Hampshire 4 Kerry 123 SWITCH
New Jersey 15 Kerry 138
New Mexico 5 Bush 186 SWITCH
New York 31 Kerry 169
North Carolina 15 Bush 201
North Dakota 3 Bush 204
Ohio 20 Kerry 189 SWITCH
Oklahoma 7 Bush 211
Oregon 7 Kerry 196
Pennsylvania 21 Kerry 217
Rhode Island 4 Kerry 221
South Carolina 8 Bush 219
South Dakota 3 Bush 222
Tennessee 11 Bush 233
Texas 34 Bush 267
Utah 5 Bush 272*****WINS!
Vermont 3 Kerry 224
Virginia 13 Bush 285
Washington 11 Kerry 235
West Virginia 5 Bush 290
Wisconsin 10 Bush 300 SWITCH
Wyoming 3 Bush 303

FINAL TALLY:
Bush 303
Kerry 235

Points to ponder:
#1. I have 7 states switching from their 2000 result, which is higher than you will see predicted pretty much anywhere else. Five go for Bush, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and two go for Kerry, New Hampshire and Ohio.
#2. I have based my switches not so much on polls but more on polls + recent trends. I think Ohio is slowly moving out of the GOP's orbit. I hope I am wrong. But there is a creeping effect from the Northeast, as Pennsylvania as slowly morphed into a Democratic state, and even Virginia shows signs of losing its "safe Republican" label at the presidential level.
3. On the other hand, I see the Upper-Midwest leaving the Dems, and in the case of Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota, finally swinging over to the GOP after a slow migration.
4. Michigan I see as a more questionable long term convert and it may well be THE big swing state of 2008.
5. New Mexico and New Hampshire I see simply as falling into their more natural orbits.

Tomorrow will be a very long day, but I am soooooo glad it is finally upon us.

In which I join the chattering throngs.

In larger amounts than ever before, this election has been filled with "expert opinion" .

Whether on the television shout shows night after night, on the internet, or via newspapers, pundits have held forth with various degrees of hyperbole for well over a year.

In another 36 hours we will know who was right and who was blowing smoke. I think a lot of people who get a lot of "face time" in the media, really are clueless about this election, where it is going and what it means.

Not wanting to get left out, here are my FINAL predictions for 2004.

Popular Vote:
Bush 49.50
Kerry 49.00

Electoral vote:
Bush 303
Kerry 235

Senate:
GOP +4

House
Status Quo + - 2

Next post I will show my state by state electoral predictions.