Eight Days

That is how much time is left to win this election. The polls are predictably beginning to tighten and I expect them to more or less continue to do so through election day.

Two reasons. First I think that is what will actually happen on the ground as a large portion of undecideds go for McCain. Second, since I think the polls are off in their methods and they know or suspect it, I think they will begin to tighten their "assumptions" to try and cover their posterior(s).

I expect this election to come down to what we always thought it would. Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia. Those are the four states that at the end of the day will make the difference. Of course if Pennsylvania goes to McCain then that makes a huge change in the math.

Several things lead me to have some hope. Ed Rendell seems cranky and worried. Partly this is because he is a smart politician, but it also is likely that he really is concerned.

Early voting was supposed to be our first chance to see the Obama Tsunami in action and so far its been a flat tire.

In my personal experience I am hearing a lot of unease about Obama. Very few are wild about McCain but many are very concerned about the implications of an Obama victory.

Sarah Palin continues to draw huge crowds. I believe there is a vast underground of support for her in some traditionally Democratic friendly demographic groups.

The Bradley/Wilder/Gannt Effect. I think it exists but I have no feel for its size. If it is 2% or more it will have a huge impact. Remember that the BWG Effect involves people telling pollsters they will vote for Obama when in fact they intend to vote for McCain. So if 2 % end up doing this then it would wipe out a 4 point Obama lead. If the Effect is 5% then it would cause a 10 point swing.

This race is very close and as always turn out is the key.