Why and What Now?

Part 1.

Amongst all the foofahrah in the aftermath of Election Night 2006 I am already hearing enough axes being ground to put the entire rain forest in jeopardy. While I expect many good points to be raised and pointed to, I think there is a simple way to interpret these latest results.

I intentionally say "latest results" because while we tend to view elections as being The End of the play, in fact they are merely the end of a numberless number of individual Acts in the play. The lights dim and the curtain falls but soon it rises again for the next act. As act follows act new characters are introduced and the dynamics of the storyline are altered.

My hypothesis is based on a theory that all voters can be placed in distinct partisan segments or compartments. While the American electorate could be divided into dozens of categories, in the name of practicality I’ll stop with just seven major groups. I make no attempt to control for smart people as opposed to dumb ones, old, young, black, white, poor or rich. While Americans are in certain matters divided along some of those lines, I no longer believe those are the true answer to why elections turn as they do.

Let me further explain that clearly individual candidates and the campaigns they run play a large part in the result. For instance Any of a dozen other Montana Republicans probably would have defeated Jon Tester. Conrad Burns was an uninspiring Senator who had grown tired and tiresome in office.

Without further ado:
The seven segments should be considered somewhat fluid, as some voters move from one to another (and perhaps back again) from election to election to election. The Seven Segments are:
A. Republicans
B. Republican Leaning Independents
C. Right of Center Independents
D. Independents
E. Left of Center Independents
F. Democrat Leaning Independents
G. Democrats

The two bracketing groups are the best known and understood. Republicans vote for Republicans and Democrats vote for Democrats. I chuckle when I see exit polls that show (by example) that Republicans voted 92-6 for George Allen and Democrats voted 92-6 for James Webb. How on Earth could ANY "Democrat" vote for Allen? Or "Republican" for Webb? I posit that this is impossible.

What I believe actually happens is people who were ONCE Republicans and can’t quite bring themselves to admit they no longer are, voted for Webb etc.
Obviously anyone can claim to be anything, but if you voted for Al Gore and John Kerry, and think Dubya is a jerk and you voted for James Webb, you ARE NOT NOW a Republican.

So when I use the labels Republican and Democrat I intend it to be understood in the most literal, direct, dogmatic, and unrelenting way possible. Put another way, "Republicans" voted for Barry Goldwater and "Democrats" voted for George McGovern.

I shall be posting in depth over the next couple of days, however a quick word.

All is not lost. In a year when the Democrats SHOULD have won big they won only by tiny amounts at the margins.

Yes, they took control of both the Senate and the House, but by narrow vote totals across the spectrum. Allen lost by about 6500, Burns by about 4000, Talent by about 42,000.

Numerous House races were very close.

American politics ALWAYS has shakeouts along the way. Nothing that happened yesterday is new, or a once in a lifetime event.

As Arnold might say "We'll be back".

BestHope

Ok, I'm back. After a year of unrelenting turmoil in my life I finally feel like blogging again.

Election day is tomorrow and while I have not been blogging I have certainly been reading and listening to all the hubbub.

My gut tells me that the Democrats pick up 12 to 18 seats in the House. This would result in an absurdly narrow margin for either party.

In the Senate I look for the GOP to lose 3 to 5 seats. Ohio and Pennsylvania are gone. I suspect Rhode Island is also. Tennessee is firmly back in the R column. Montana I fear will go for Tester along the lines of 52-48.

Missouri I believe will go for Talent by a few thousand votes.

Allen will hold on in Virginia by 51-49.

My major upset pick is Steele in Maryland. He is within 3-4 points in all polls, and I believe the black vote will turn his way strongly on Tuesday.

That all amounts to a net Dem pickup of 3 seats. However, Talent and Allen are in tough tough races and the ground game could turn them either way.

BestHope