RedState Has Become A Joke
I mentioned a few weeks ago that I was less than thrilled with a certain well known website. As promised I held my fire until the election was past. Now its past. It is time now for straight talk no matter who it offends.
redstate.com is a joke. A bad joke. Almost nothing about it is useful or professional. A site as poorly ran and edited as redstate.com is a liability to conservatives and Republicans. I don't plan to spend much time on this so let's cut to the facts.
1. The "managing editor" of the site posted on the "front page" that Republican Congressman Tom Cole "is a douchebag". Within hours he had to retract his comments because in fact the terrible sin that he had accused Cole of was bogus. Several things wrong with this: Bitterly attacking a conservative Republican without checking his facts. Using gutter language at all and especially toward an ally. No professionalism and no class.
2. Just days ago "the editors" came out and endorsed two Democrats running for congress from Alaska against Don Young and Ted Stevens. Why did Ethan Berkowitz and Mark Begich rate an endorsement from redstate.com? Because "the editors" are idiots. It apparently never occurred to "the editors" that if Begich were elected he would serve 6 years, but if Stevens were elected he'd serve maybe 6 months. Stevens is a convicted felon and the Democrats are going to hound him all over hell's half acre until he "retires". Gee....I wonder who might end up taking his place?
3. During the financial institution meltdown when the old media was all atwitter about the economic crisis, redstate.com headlined the same story. Day after day we had to read about how awful everything was and how uncertain the future was/is. The is analogous to a liberal blog constantly drawing attention to William Ayers or Americans born in Kenya. It was just absurd.
RedState stepped up several years ago and was a force for good. Now it is pathetic and not much use to anyone.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Deja Vu
Just about exactly two years ago I held forth on why the Democrats were successful in THAT election. In a three part piece I laid out a hypothesis on how the American voting public is segmented. I identified 7 groups of voters:
A. Republicans
B. Republican Leaning Independents
C. Right of Center Independents
D. Independents
E. Left of Center Independents
F. Democrat Leaning Independents
G. Democrats
I then explained how I think those 7 groups act in various election conditions:
"A & G stick with their party through thick and thin and each group constitutes about 35% of all voters. These two segments also tend to vote in fairly high and consistent numbers. They are true believers and take ever opportunity to vote their beliefs.
Segments B & F don't consider themselves as members of either party but effectively they function as such. They also tend to be regular voters but tend to vote in higher number when their side seems to be on the upswing. They only vote for the other side in extreme cases such as McGovern or Goldwater. I assign them each roughly 5% of the voting public.
Segments C & E are much different animals. Their natural tendencies are toward the Right or Left but they are not wedded to partisan ideals to enough of an extent that it outweighs other considerations. Issues such as a war going badly, corruption, or incompetence can cause these two segments to swing over and vote for the "other" party.Segments C & E tend to vote much heavier when their side is doing well. They get discouraged easily and just throw in the towel and don't bother voting. Dukakis largely lost the E's. Bush 41 lost the C's in 1992. Kerry lost the E's. Gore and Bush probably came out about even. Perot got a bunch of both of them in 1992, not nearly as many in 1996. These two segments each represent about 5% of all voters.
Our last segment is D and these are the true independents. Accounting for about 10% of the voting population they generally have no use for either party. They are largely upper middle class and above in income and education. They are not interested in "family values" as such. Economics, social justice, the environment, and libertarian principles tend to drive various sub-groups of this segment.This segment is highly volatile and swings heavily from one election cycle to the next. They vote sporadically depending on how bummed out they are by things in general. Various sub-groups of this Segment loved Ross Perot and/or Ralph Nader. The last president they really got behind was Reagan although Clinton did fairly well with them. "Doing well" with independents entails not just winning their favor but actually energizing them enough to come out and vote."
Obviously in 2008 again the two edge groups A&G voted for their party. as we move toward the middle (of my grouping not necessarily the political spectrum) the B-C & E-F groups also went their normal way. Thus even in a terrible year for Republicans, John McCain and Sarah Palin got 46% of the vote.
Where I suspect McCain lost the election was in the very middle, the D group. Barack Obama excited this segment like no candidate has. Ever. The good news for Republicans is that if (when?) Barack Obama makes a few stumbles this will be the first group to desert him. The bad news for Republicans is that Barack Obama just won a 4 year term as President of the United States.
Just about exactly two years ago I held forth on why the Democrats were successful in THAT election. In a three part piece I laid out a hypothesis on how the American voting public is segmented. I identified 7 groups of voters:
A. Republicans
B. Republican Leaning Independents
C. Right of Center Independents
D. Independents
E. Left of Center Independents
F. Democrat Leaning Independents
G. Democrats
I then explained how I think those 7 groups act in various election conditions:
"A & G stick with their party through thick and thin and each group constitutes about 35% of all voters. These two segments also tend to vote in fairly high and consistent numbers. They are true believers and take ever opportunity to vote their beliefs.
Segments B & F don't consider themselves as members of either party but effectively they function as such. They also tend to be regular voters but tend to vote in higher number when their side seems to be on the upswing. They only vote for the other side in extreme cases such as McGovern or Goldwater. I assign them each roughly 5% of the voting public.
Segments C & E are much different animals. Their natural tendencies are toward the Right or Left but they are not wedded to partisan ideals to enough of an extent that it outweighs other considerations. Issues such as a war going badly, corruption, or incompetence can cause these two segments to swing over and vote for the "other" party.Segments C & E tend to vote much heavier when their side is doing well. They get discouraged easily and just throw in the towel and don't bother voting. Dukakis largely lost the E's. Bush 41 lost the C's in 1992. Kerry lost the E's. Gore and Bush probably came out about even. Perot got a bunch of both of them in 1992, not nearly as many in 1996. These two segments each represent about 5% of all voters.
Our last segment is D and these are the true independents. Accounting for about 10% of the voting population they generally have no use for either party. They are largely upper middle class and above in income and education. They are not interested in "family values" as such. Economics, social justice, the environment, and libertarian principles tend to drive various sub-groups of this segment.This segment is highly volatile and swings heavily from one election cycle to the next. They vote sporadically depending on how bummed out they are by things in general. Various sub-groups of this Segment loved Ross Perot and/or Ralph Nader. The last president they really got behind was Reagan although Clinton did fairly well with them. "Doing well" with independents entails not just winning their favor but actually energizing them enough to come out and vote."
Obviously in 2008 again the two edge groups A&G voted for their party. as we move toward the middle (of my grouping not necessarily the political spectrum) the B-C & E-F groups also went their normal way. Thus even in a terrible year for Republicans, John McCain and Sarah Palin got 46% of the vote.
Where I suspect McCain lost the election was in the very middle, the D group. Barack Obama excited this segment like no candidate has. Ever. The good news for Republicans is that if (when?) Barack Obama makes a few stumbles this will be the first group to desert him. The bad news for Republicans is that Barack Obama just won a 4 year term as President of the United States.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Noble or Mean?
That appears to be the choice we have tomorrow. Abraham Lincoln's quote that appears at the top of this blog is as relevant today as it was 145 years ago. A vote for Barack Obama in my opinion is a vote for nothing more than empty promises and destruction of the American Dream. A vote for John McCain means we keep moving forward with the struggle for a better life on this planet. Some final comments before the decision is made.
I believe the polls have wandered off the statistically valid reservation this year and have become part of the story instead of neutral bystanders. Certainly we should know by late tomorrow evening whether I and many commentators with whom I agree are right or deluded.
If the turnout is as massive as "they" say it is going to be, I think that is good for McCain and indicates that it is not just the Democrats who are motivated to vote. Since I also suspect that young and "new" voters won't show up as the media and the Barack Obama campaign are assuring us they will, a large turn out overall is again a good thing for McCain-Palin.
Sarah Palin has invigorated the GOP base as no one since Ronald Reagan and again I take that as a major sign that points toward an upset win for McCain.
The IBD poll continues to show a very close race, within the MOE and with Barack Obama well below 50%. Given that IBD nailed the 2004 margin better than any other pollster, one has to take their numbers very seriously.
So here we are. Will America move harshly to the left or surprise the experts and only move slightly left square into the middle?
My prediction for what it is worth comes down to one state. Pennsylvania. Whoever wins the Keystone State, wins the election.
Go vote my friends and may God continue to bless America.
That appears to be the choice we have tomorrow. Abraham Lincoln's quote that appears at the top of this blog is as relevant today as it was 145 years ago. A vote for Barack Obama in my opinion is a vote for nothing more than empty promises and destruction of the American Dream. A vote for John McCain means we keep moving forward with the struggle for a better life on this planet. Some final comments before the decision is made.
I believe the polls have wandered off the statistically valid reservation this year and have become part of the story instead of neutral bystanders. Certainly we should know by late tomorrow evening whether I and many commentators with whom I agree are right or deluded.
If the turnout is as massive as "they" say it is going to be, I think that is good for McCain and indicates that it is not just the Democrats who are motivated to vote. Since I also suspect that young and "new" voters won't show up as the media and the Barack Obama campaign are assuring us they will, a large turn out overall is again a good thing for McCain-Palin.
Sarah Palin has invigorated the GOP base as no one since Ronald Reagan and again I take that as a major sign that points toward an upset win for McCain.
The IBD poll continues to show a very close race, within the MOE and with Barack Obama well below 50%. Given that IBD nailed the 2004 margin better than any other pollster, one has to take their numbers very seriously.
So here we are. Will America move harshly to the left or surprise the experts and only move slightly left square into the middle?
My prediction for what it is worth comes down to one state. Pennsylvania. Whoever wins the Keystone State, wins the election.
Go vote my friends and may God continue to bless America.
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