How Does Dean Aim To Win? Conclusion

My impression of Howard Dean (have you noticed that the N.Y. Times almost ALWAYS refers to him as Dr. Dean?) leads me to suspect that while he is clearly a savvy politician, he falls into an all too familiar trap: He believes his own PR.

I think Dean really believes that he has caught lightening in bottle. That he has found something no one else knows about, and that he is therefore unstoppable. Dean has the ability to come across as "honest", but as with many "honest" people, you quickly realize that honesty in this case is just Howard saying whatever pops into his skull.

Suggesting President Bush knew about 9-11 ahead of time was not honest, it was stupid.

Prattling on about his fight with a church over a bike path was not honest, it was stupid.

Saying the U.S. was not safer because Saddam Hussein was captured was not honest, it was stupid.

Going to some pains to defend Osama Bin Laden's right to a fair trail was STUPID.

Saying it did not matter who tried Bin Laden, was STUPID.

Howard Dean is a walking talking trash can who can't help himself. What should terrify all intelligent Democrats is the prospect of a Dean/Clark pairing. That would rival Mondale/Ferraro and McGovern/Shriver as the worst major party ticket of the last 100 years or so.

Now back to the issue of how Dean might run after sewing up the nomination. My educated guess is that:

1. He will track back toward the center on one or two major issues. Gay marriage is a likely target, along with maybe a pronouncement on race echoing Bill Clinton's Sister Soulja episode during 1992.
2. He will move his few moderate positions such as guns, front and center, and harp on them incessantly.
3. He will continue to hammer President Bush on the Iraq war, the deficit and tax policy.
4. He will maintain a number of very liberal policy positions to keep his base fired up AND because he actually thinks that helps him.

Now the match-up. I think Bush vs Dean is an outstanding match-up for Bush. Beside Dean, Bush will appear very serious and presidential. I think Dean's manner will wear on the American Public after a while. Actually I think his star is starting to dim already, ten months before the election. Chihuahuas can be fun but their constant yapping gets on your nerves after a while.

As has been pointed out by many, if Bush wins the same states as in 2000, he will increase his margin due to reapportionment. At this point in the game, my assumption is that Bush *will* win every state he carried in 2000. By the same token I simply don't see Dean holding every Gore state. Thus I see comfortable victory for Bush if no cataclysmic event intervenes.

Bush will win on LIKEABLE, QUALIFIED, and IDEAS. A clean sweep. Dean has not a prayer except prayer, and I seriously doubt that anyone will be listening to him.