17 Days

Just over two weeks away and the election is seemingly tight as a tick on flea bitten hound dog.

Here is a quick synopsis of how I THINK we got here.

1. 2000 election extremely close and controversial, thus 2004 likely to be also.

2. 9-11 refocused Americans' minds and priorities.

3. Bush did very well in the months following 9-11 and gained much respect and support.

4. Americans generally supported both Afghanistan and Iraq wars.

5. When the Iraq war continued after the 4th Quarter ended, inevitably many left of center Americans started getting cold feet and backed off from their "support" for the President.

6. As the Democratic Party went through its nomination process, many more Democrats returned to the fold and made this a close race.

7. The Democratic Convention was in hindsight a mess, but it gave the Kerry campaign a brief appearance of momentum and perhaps a small lead.

8. August was an unmitigated disaster for Kerry, with the Swift Boat Vets dominating the news.

9. The GOP convention was a distinct success and Bush started to build a lead.

10. RatherGate further damaged Kerry and boosted Bush into a considerable margin of from 6-12 points.

11. The first debate badly damaged Bush. Perhaps his greatest strength is his folksiness as contrasted with Kerry's aloofness. In the debate Bush appeared to many as grouchy, rude, and petty, and the polls were suddenly showing a near dead even race.

12. In the last two debates Bush recovered nicely and while perhaps "losing" on style, actually won on substance. Most Americans can tell the difference and Bush opened a 1-3 point lead.

13. MaryGate jumped up out of the bullrushes to bite Kerry's posterior and give Bush a further nudge of perhaps another full point.

That is where we stand today.

I think Bush currently has something between a 2-4 point lead. More importantly he appears to lead in enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.

The next two weeks will be most interesting.