Monday, October 20, 2008

Very interesting post today from DJ Drummond at Stolen Thunder.

DJ is providing some much needed perspective on the various polls this year.

I remain unconvinced that the polls showing Obama up by 3 to 8 points are valid. Pollsters this year seem to have all gone off the tracks to one extent or another. I suspect that they all believe that Obama should be ahead and thus they are to an extent cooking the polls to bring that about.

There are two distinct groups of polls. First there are the media polls done by the networks and major newspapers. These are almost always suspect and I ignore them as useless.

Then there are the other polls done by Rasmussen, Gallup, IBD, Zogby, Battleground, etc, which are from a technical standpoint highly accurate. The problem comes in the various weighting standards that are being used. When Gallup releases not one, not two, but THREE different polling models with large differences in the results, then how sure can anyone be that any of the polling is accurate?

Barack Obama is clearly the most radical major party nominee ever. Sarah Palin is drawing huge crowds, and John McCain keeps fighting. This race is not over yet.