Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Revisiting the Seven Groups

Several years ago I broke the electorate in to seven groups:

A. Republicans
B. Republican Leaning Independents
C. Right of Center Independents
D. Independents
E. Left of Center Independents
F. Democrat Leaning Independents
G. Democrats

Just after the 2008 presidential election I wrote:

"Where I suspect McCain lost the election was in the very middle, the D group. Barack Obama excited this segment like no candidate has. Ever. The good news for Republicans is that if (when?) Barack Obama makes a few stumbles this will be the first group to desert him."

And so it has come to pass. As Barack Obama fumbles around with the economy and the BP oil spill, large swaths of the American people are realizing this guy is a clown with nary a clue has to how to solve problems.

But it is in that crucial "D Group" that Obama has taken his worst beating. Independents began jumping ship late last year with elections in Virginia and New Jersey and continued this year with Massachusetts.

As Obama's poll numbers have cratered, it is clear that this D Group is where he is hemorrhaging the worst.

Republicans should not assume that they will get these votes this November or in 2012. True independents can be won by the Republicans but if the GOP does not offer a compelling alternative, many of these voters will just stay home on election night.