The Home Stretch

Less than 4o days now until we find out just how disgusted American voters are with the state of our government and Barack Obama. While there are endless numbers of opinions and predictions on how the totals will shake out, it is universally agreed that the Republicans will gain significant ground.

As with all elections, there are many factors to consider when trying to divine where the voters will be five and a half weeks from now.

We know (or at least we think we know) that the Obama Agenda is unpopular with a majority of Americans.

We know that with the growth of the Tea Party movement, Republicans and Republican leaners are far more enthused about voting this year than the Left.

We know that many voters begin to move from undecided toward their roots as election day nears.

We know that polls underestimate Republican strength more often than they underestimate Democrat strength.

So what does what we know suggest will actually happen?

As of today, September 24, 2010, I believe the GOP will take back the house by a narrow margin. Forced to choose a number I will settle on a pick-up of 47 seats leaving the House at 226R-209D.

In the Senate there are so many polls with conflicting numbers that the final tally could wildly vary based on just a relatively few votes. My fearless prediction is that the GOP will pick up 8 seats to bring the next Senate to 49R-49D-2I, leaving Democrats with razor thin control.