Warner or Warner?

There are increasing signs and whispers out of my state of Virginia that Senator John Warner may not run again. This could be very bad news for Republicans.

Warner is not actively fundraising or making moves that one would expect if he were getting ready to run for a sixth term.

At this point it is all speculation, but it appears unlikely that he would be dragging this out if he was going to run. By diddling around he would seem to only embolden the Democrats and give various people ideas.

In a year that already will be difficult, things will be even worse for the GOP if a "safe" Virginia seat is suddenly in play. John Warner is not a favorite of conservatives but he is a darn site better than anyone the Democrats would plug in his place.

The 600 pound gorilla sitting on the sidelines is former Gov. Mark Warner. Mark Warner is widely believed to be a near shoo-in for the seat against anyone except John Warner. Actually the two already did battle back in 1996 with John escaping a surprisingly tough race with about 52% of the vote. That however was the race that elevated Mark Warner to A List status and ultimately lead to his election to the Governor's Mansion in 2001.

Mark Warner though is a bit of a question mark himself due to his early and not entirely explained exit from the Democratic presidential contest last year. Generally considered a serious entry due to his moderate persona and popularity in a "red state", Warner surprised and disappointed many with his withdrawal.

John Warner may yet announce that he's going to give it one more run, but at 80 years of age he may decide that 30 years is quite enough.