Friday, September 24, 2010

The Home Stretch

Less than 4o days now until we find out just how disgusted American voters are with the state of our government and Barack Obama. While there are endless numbers of opinions and predictions on how the totals will shake out, it is universally agreed that the Republicans will gain significant ground.

As with all elections, there are many factors to consider when trying to divine where the voters will be five and a half weeks from now.

We know (or at least we think we know) that the Obama Agenda is unpopular with a majority of Americans.

We know that with the growth of the Tea Party movement, Republicans and Republican leaners are far more enthused about voting this year than the Left.

We know that many voters begin to move from undecided toward their roots as election day nears.

We know that polls underestimate Republican strength more often than they underestimate Democrat strength.

So what does what we know suggest will actually happen?

As of today, September 24, 2010, I believe the GOP will take back the house by a narrow margin. Forced to choose a number I will settle on a pick-up of 47 seats leaving the House at 226R-209D.

In the Senate there are so many polls with conflicting numbers that the final tally could wildly vary based on just a relatively few votes. My fearless prediction is that the GOP will pick up 8 seats to bring the next Senate to 49R-49D-2I, leaving Democrats with razor thin control.

Friday, September 03, 2010

Erick Erickson is at it Again!

My antipathy for Erick Erickson, the so-called "editor" of RedState, is no secret. Now, Erickson has rung the bell again. In spite of RedState's policy of "support the Republican" or be banned, Erickson has a post this morning in which he explicitly renounces Mike Castle in Deleware, twelve days before the Senate Primary in that state.
"I would rather die a thousand times over via crushing by an anaconda while being torn limb from limb by a jaguar than see Mike Castle in the Senate. I would rather be slowly run over by a road roller while listening to Janeane Garofalo dialogue from The Truth About Cats and Dogs than see Mike Castle in the Senate.

I’d rather see the Democrat get elected than see Mike Castle get elected. Seriously, I know many of you disagree with me, but if the majority depends on Mike Castle, to hell with the majority."